is-the-market-up-this-week?-just-ask-the-fed’s-balance-sheet

Something remarkable happened when the Fed announced “NOT QE”: starting that week, every time the Fed’s balance sheet rose, so did the S&P. And the one week when the Fed’s balance sheet shrank, the market dropped. Yes, correlation may not be causation, but if a pattern repeats 9 weeks out of 9, then it becomes…

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why-sen.-josh-hawley-is-right-to-go-after-negligent-landlords

Toilets should not leak into dining rooms. That incident was probably the nadir of the various indignities I’ve endured as a renter. Not only was it was gross, it epitomized a landlord whose approach to maintenance was never to do today what could be put off until tomorrow, next week, or next year. Waste-water dripping…

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why-the-us-job-market-is-about-to-crack-in-8-charts

With the US economy once again rolling over, as various Fed nowcasts see a sharp slump in Q4 GDP and the Citi economic surprise index slumping from a nearly two year high hit at the start of September… … while real GDP growth is tracking the ISM lower month after month… … the one part…

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the-loan-market-is-starting-to-freeze-up-again:-“there-is-growing-risk-of-credit-accidents”

Depending on the source, views on the state of the leveraged loan market range from euphoria to growing pessimism. Among the former is Brian Reynolds, Chief Market Strategist who in his Oct 24 Market Insight  note writes the following: The September credit issuance surge resulted in the loan market being overserved with low quality deals.…

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someone-just-made-a-huge-bet-the-market-crashes-by-april

With VIX collapsing to a 12 handle on Friday, as stocks pushed towards new record highs – despite record high policy uncertainty – one trader took advantage of the ‘cheap’ protection costs to place a huge bet on the market descending into the kind of chaos not seen since the global financial crisis. As Bloomberg…

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ron-paul:-the-fed-is-in-the-stock-market-and-they-don’t-want-us-to-know-the-details

On Tuesday September 3, 2019, former Texas congressman Ron Paul appeared on an episode of the Quoth the Raven podcast to weigh in on the state of equity markets, the media’s role in indoctrinating the masses with Keynesian theory, how Tulsi Gabbard “isn’t getting a fair shake” and his view on the second amendment. Here’s…

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“the-market-is-on-thin-ice”:-have-stocks-sucessfully-averted-a-crisis?

Having warned about a potential “Lehman-like shock” as recently as the first week of August, Nomura’s quant team has turned decidedly more sanguine on the risk of an imminent market crash with stocks failing to take out new lows in recent weeks despite a daily rollercoaster in risk sentiment. And while on 1 September, the…

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why-this-market-just-refuses-to-sell-off?-one-bank-explains

Two days ago, we reported that Russell Clark, the CIO of Horseman Global, “the world’s most bearish hedge fund”, had one pressing question in his latest investor letter: “why are people not more bearish?” Here one could argue that just like Ray Dalio (whose Pure Alpha fund has been suffering from a variety of wrong-way…

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emerging-market-fx-plunges-to-record-low-as-pesos-plummet

Emerging market investors appear to be the most sensitive canaries in the global investing coalmine as they abandon ‘high growth’ opportunities in favor of safe-havens, sending broad-based emerging market currencies to record lows… JPMorgan’s Emerging Market FX index just hit a new record low… Source: Bloomberg The various “pesos” are leading the most recent collapse……

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loan-market-freezing-up-again-after-5-deals-for-$1.3bn-quietly-pulled

While stocks have a ways to drop before they catch down to the December 2018 lows, one market is starting to feel dangerously similar to the late 2019 chaos. As readers will recall, the first market to get whacked in Q4 was the leveraged loan market which froze up virtually overnight as countless deals were…

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